China Zaino - Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

Base on Q2, 2009 financial report:

• PE = 3.5
• Dividend Yield = 5.8%
• NAV = $0.288
• Net Earning = 15.6% (18.3% in 2008)
• Current Ratio = 5.7
• ROA = 31.7% (Base on 2008 Full Year)
• ROE = 36.3% (base on 2008 Full Year)
• Cash Flow = S$199.8 Million (27% increase with reference to 2008 Full Year)

  Stock Background

• 3 years historal high = $0.615
• Current Price = $0.30 (only 49% of 3 years high)

Intrinsic Value Calculation

PE Model

• Fair value PE = 15, intrinsic value= $1.23 (base on EPS $0.08185)
• PEG = 0.24 (it looks like super under value!)

DCF Model

• Growth Rate = 15% (capped)
• Discount Rate = 5%
• Number of Shares = 945 million
• 2008A Net Operating Cash Flow = S$55.893 million, intrinsic value = $1.01

Discounted EPS Model

• Growth Rate = 15% (capped)
• Discount Rate = 5%
• 2009F EPS = $0.08185
• Intrinsic Value = $1.40

Intrinsic Value for China Zaino (the most conservative number of the three numbers) = $1.01 (Current price is 70% discount to the intrinsic value!)