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May 31, 2010.

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Monday, October 12, 2009

SMRT - Fundamental & Intrinsic Value







Base on FY2009 Financial Report
  • Current Price = $1.73
  • PE = 16.1
  • Dividend Yield = 4.5%
  • NAV = $0.5074
  • Net Earning = 18.5%
  • Current Ratio = 0.942
  • ROA = 10.8%
  • ROE = 22.5%


Intrinsic Value Calculaton



PE Model
  • Fair value PE, base on FY2009 EPS $0.10726
  • EPS Growth = 16.2%
  • Intrinsic Value = $1.61
  • PEG = 0.99



Discounted EPS Model


  • EPS Growth Rate = 16.2% (capped at 15% for calculation)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • FY2009 EPS = $0.10726
  • Intrinsic Value = $1.83
DCF Model
Unable to calculate the Intrinsic Value because the Free Cash Flow is not consistent year over year. SMRT is not buying MRT trains every year and thus Annual Free Cash Flow is not increasing consistently due to inconsistent CAPEX.

SMRT intrinsic value is between $1.61 to $1.83. The current SMRT stock price is at its fair value.


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