Genting Singapore - Forming a Bearish Descending Triangle?

Genting appears to be forming a Bearish Descending Triangle in an up trend. If this triangle is formed and the stock price breakdown from the triangle support, a trend reversal pattern is confirmed. In addition, Genting has just broken 20D and 50D MA support lines. RSI is heading south (31% now) and MACD shows bearish convergence. These are Sell signals.

SIA - Breaks 20D & 50D MA Support!

SIA closed today at $13.30 with a shooting star (Inverted Hammer) with increase in trading volume. The stock has broken below 20D and 50D MA support and other indicators like MACD, RSI, Stochastic Parabolic SAR, Bollinger Band showed weakness in the near term. SIA may retrace back to $12.10 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

StarHub - 5% price dropped after ex-Dividend. What next to SingTel?

Starhub stock price dropped about 5% after ex-Dividend date on Nov 24. The stock price broke 20D and 50D MA support and looked very bearish. MACD is also showing Bearish Convergence and further down trend is expected. Next critical support is $1.83 which is very close to 52 weeks historical low of $1.76.

Base on this pattern, it is predicted that SingTel may go down to $2.75 (5% drop with reference to current $2.90 and if the stock price stays about this level) after ex-Dividend date on Dec 18. SingTel may go to bearish mode if $2.90 support is broken. This $2.90 is a very critical support where this is also the 20D MA, 50A MA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level. Last 5% price drop was observed after the ex-Dividend date on Aug 5. Would this pattern repeat on SingTel itself again?

Both charts look bearish and I am waiting for the stock price to hit bottom before buying for long term investment (for dividend collection).

Yangzijiang - Breaking out from an Ascending Triangle

Yangzijiang broke out from an Ascending Triangle on an uptrend with an increase in volume. If the stock retests $1.06 and can stay above this resistance turned support level, the price target is about $1.32 (but need to clear $1.243 resistance first).

Agrium Inc (AGU) - Nice Candlesticks Patterns to Trade!

Agrium has been showing nice & reliable candlestick patterns to trade. Some far the candlesticks patterns have been realiable to predict the future price movement. So far, a few reliable trend reversal patterns like Morning Star, Evening Star, Bearish Kicker were seen. A Dark Cloud Cover pattern was formed on Nov 23 closing, this is another trend reversal pattern. By looking at the chart, AGU bounced back from the resistance of $57.69 and due to pulling back from its recent up trend. I am planning for a PUT option for AGU.

Jaya Holding - Breaking out from the Symmetrical Triangle

Jaya Holding looks like breaking out from the Symmetrical Triangle.

Technical Indicators also look bullish:

• Stock price above 20D, 50D and 200D MA.
• Stock price at upper Bollinger Band
• Stock price is below Parabolic SAR curve
• MACD Bullish Convergence
• RSI & Stochastic at Overbought region.

However, this bullishness may not be sustainable due to lack of volume.

Goldman Sachs - Going to complete Right Shoulder!

GS appears close to complete the forming of right shoulder. The stock is unable to break the uptrend support turned resistance line & its 50D MA. If GS breaks the neckline, the stock may be sent down to $144.
Other Technical Indicators (MACD, Parabolic SAR, RSI, Stochastic, Bollinger Band) start to show bearish convergence.

Rotary Engineering - Going to breakdown from a Descending Triangle?

Rotary Engineering has formed a descending triangle. The stock price is currently below 20D and 50D MA. If Rotary breaks down from this descending triangle, it may go down to $0.80.

China Fishery - 5th Wave has started!

China Fishery has started the 5th Wave, normally the biggest wave of an Elliot Wave. The  retracements are very well fitted in this Fibonacci Retracement.
Wave 1 & Wave 2: Retracement from 100% level to 61.8% level
Wave 3 & Wave 4: Retracement from 123.6% level to 100% level.

Will Wave 5 & Wave A retrace from 150% ($1.638) level to 123.6% ($1.433) level, before moving to 161.8% ($1.729) level? This pattern may help me to make some money.

Review of Key Indices Patterns

DOW JONE INDUSTRIAL

• DJI is still on the uptrend as the chart pattern shows the index is still having a higher high, lower high.
• 10297 is a critical resistance and DJI has to break this resistance to confirm the uptrend is still intact.
• 9916 is a critical trend support. If DJI breaks this trend support, the next critical support level to watch is 9710. If DJI cannot stay above 9710, it is confirmed that DJI up trend has ended and may start the down trend.

 S&P 500 (SPY)

•  S&P500 appears to be forming a Double Top. Critical support is at about 105 (projected up trend support level). If SPY breaks below this trend support, SPY may be sent down to about 100 level.
• 110.1 is the critical resistance.

 NASDAQ COMPOSITE

•  NASDAQ appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders. If NASDAQ falls below 2041 (neckline) and stay below this level, H&S pattern is confirmed and may send NASDAQ down to 1893.

 Straits Times Index (STI) 

• STI has a similar pattern to S&P500, forming a Double Top.
• Critical uptrend support level is at about 2630. If STI breaks this support, the index may go down 2496 level.
• Critical resistance at 2743.

Base on the chart patterns, DJI, S&P500, NASDAQ and STI probably will be bearish for the next one or two weeks. The market direction may be predicted depends on the patterns confirmation.

SPH - Broke Critical Support Levels!

SPH seems to have broken below the 9 months uptrend support, 20D and 50D MA support with a spike in volume.  Below chart plotted base on Fibonacci Level on uptrend since Mar 2009.

 

 

Looking at from another perspective in a longer term view (Fibonacci Level on down trend since Dec 2008), SPH is unable to break the $3.859 resistance level.

 

• Base on two different perspective, critical support level for SPH is between $3.565 (50% Fibonacci Level on 2nd chart) to $3.597 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 1st chart, gray color). I simplify it to $3.58 as a critical level to watch.
• Next critical support is between $3.271 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 2nd chart) to $3.352 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 1st chart, blue color). I simplify it to $3.31 as a critical level to watch.
• SPH closing price for today is $3.74.

StarHub - Raised its Quarterly Dividend from 4.5 cents to 5 cents

StarHub closed at $2.04 with a long opening marubozu candle (bullish candle) today after reported 3rd quarter result and raised its quarterly dividend from 4.5 cents to 5 cents, implied a Dividend Yield of 9.8%. The increase in quarterly dividend comes as a surprise because there is a concern over StarHub's ability to sustain its earning and cash flow on its recent loss of BPL (Barclay Premier League) broadcasting right.

StarHub stock charts broke up the 20D MA and currently testing the 50D MA resistance at $2.04 with a spike in volume. The stock price is still below 200D MA. Immediate support is at $2.01.

Summary of Analysts' Rating on StarHub:

Hyflux - Forming a Right Shoulder?

Hyflux appears to be forming a right shoulder. The downward target is $2.60 if the stock price breaks the neckline of $2.90. Hyflux has been on uptrend since Mar 2009, it needs a  correction back to $2.475 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) for a long term healthy up trend.

KS Energy - Breakdown from Wedge

My previous analysis (http://mystocksinvesting.blogspot.com/2009/10/ks-energy-forming-wedge.html) came true after KS Energy breakdown from the wedge. Today KS Energy closed at $1.06 with hanging man after a Bullish Harami. This stock may consolidate or rebound a little bit before heading towards the breakdown target of $0.85.

Raffles Education - Bounced back from the Channel Support?

Raffles Education closed at $0.445 on Friday and formed a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern. Coincidently, the stock price bounced back from the $0.435 supports level (38.2% Fibonacci Level and Channel Support). If next session opens with a gap up and closes with a bullish long white candle, a Three Inside Up pattern is formed which confirm a trend reversal.

Another thing to take note is there were Insiders Trading for the past three months. The substantial shareholders were increasing their shares holding. Mr. Chew Hua Seng is the Chairman & CEO, Ms Doris Chung Gim Lian is the spouse of Mr. Chew, Mr. Henry Tan Song Kok is the Independant Director.

The analysis shows it is rather safe to trade at this price level due to the following reasons:

1. Strong Support (Channel Support and Fibonacci Level) base on the chart.
2. Bullish Harami candlestick normally either moves sideway or upward (trend reversal)
3. Price of Insiders's transaction between $0.475 to $0.55.

Thus, the downside probability is minimal.

My Swing Trading Plan:

• Entry Level $0.44 to $0.46
• Profit Target = 10%

US Real unemployment really bad!

The U.S. Labor Department reported that payrolls fell by 190,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 10.2%, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million. But the real unemployment is more than that!

American Express (AXP) - Forming a Rising Wedge

AXP is forming a Rising Wedge. If AXP breakdown from this pattern, it has the potential to retrace back to $30.867 in the short term. AXP is currently on a long term uptrend as 200D MA is heading up.

American Express (AXP) - Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

Base on TTM (Trailing Twelve Months):

• Current Price = $35.96
• PE = 25.32
• Dividend Yield = 2%
• Net Earning (TTM) = 6.74% (9.5% in 2008)
• ROA (TTM) = 1.34% (Not applicable to my criteria of ROA > 10% because Financial institution generally have very low ROA)
• ROE (TTM) = % 12.5% (23.6% in 2008)
• EPS (TTM) = $1.42 ($2.33 in 2008)

Intrinsic Value Calculation (DCF Model)

• Next 10 Year Average Projected Growth Rate = 10.3%
• Discount Rate = 10% (I use 10% to factor in the USD / SGD currency risk and economy risk in US)
• Number of Shares = 1,190 million
• 2008 Free Cash Flow = $7,689 million (Operating Cash Flow minus Capital Expenditure)
• Intrinsic Value = $65.59

Intrinsic Value Calculation (Discounted EPS Model)

• Growth Rate = 10.3%
• Discount Rate = 10%
• EPS (TTM) = $1.42
• Intrinsic Value = $14.41

Intrinsic Value Calculation (PE Model)

• Fair value PE = 15, intrinsic value= $21.30 (base on EPS $1.42)
• PEG = 2.45 (Current Price is Over value!)

Stock Background

• Historical High = $65.55
• 52 Weeks High = $36.44
• 52 Weeks Low = $10.26

So, which intrinsic value to use?
I will be using the Intrinsic Value ($21.30) derived from the PE Model. My reasons:

1. Although the Intrinsic Value calculated from DCF Model is $65.59, however AXP may not be going up to this price base on historical high of $65.55.
2. The intrinsic value ($14.41) derived from the Discounted EPS Model may be too conservative as the 52 weeks historical low is $10.26. Unless there is another big market crash due to financial crisis, it is unlikely AXP going back to this level again.
3. By doing a comparison between American Express, MasterCard and Visa, the Intrinsic Value ($21.30) derived from the simple PE Model looks more realistic.

4. The financial sector in generally in a very bad shape and it is safer to take a more conservative approach in valuing a financial institution. We don't really know how many more banks are there goint to bankcrupt and how much inter-link toxic assets affecting each other. Furthermore, this is potential personal credit risks due to continous high unemployment rate in US. These credit card companies may have lot more undisclosed bad debts if the economy condition worsen.

China Zaino - Is this 200D MA Support Strong Enough?

China Zaino is testing its critical support at $0.23 (200D MA support) to $0.235 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

Base on Elliot Wave pattern, China Zaino shall bounce back from this support and start the 5th Wave.  However, Wave 2 and Wave 4 seems to over-correct to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level.

ST Engineering - Testing the Resistance 2nd time!

ST Engineering is testing the $2.96 resistance for the 2nd time. If this stock fails to break the resistance, a double top may be formed. Immediate support at $2.82 and critical support at $2.7.

Summary of Analysts' recommendation on ST Engineering:

Cosco - Chart looks Very Bearish!

Cosco breaks the Falling Wedge support and 200D MA support today. Stock price is at the lower Bollinger Band and MACD also shows Bearish Convergence.

Summary of analysts' recommendation on Cosco Corp:

Cosco's chart is VERY BEARISH and I am avoiding this stock totally. Not the right time and right price to buy for long term investment as the price may go lower!

UNG - Return to the Falling Wedge

UNG failed the breakout from the channel and returned to the falling wedge. $9.00 is a critical support level and if UNG bounces back from this support, a double bottom will be formed. If this support is broken, UNG will continue to go south to its historical low until the next support of $7.072. Formation of either a double bottom pattern or breakout from a falling wedge in a down trend will reverse a trend (i.e. the stock price will move up eventually). As I am planning to invest this ETF for long term, this analysis gives me some idea where I can accumulate more shares at a lower price.

SGX - Bearish Convergence!

SGX has started the correction. Standard Six Technical Indicators showed Bearish signal.

• MACD showed Bearish Convergence.
• RSI & Stochastic are heading south.
• Parabolic SAR line on top of stock price.
• Stock price is under 20D and 50D MA.
• Stock price is at the lower Bollinger Band.

Immediate support at $7.65 and critical support at $7.028 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

Goldman Sachs and Apple - Get Ready to Short!

I am preparing to short (buy PUT option) Goldman Sachs (GS) & Apple (AAPL) if the charts pattern are confirmed bearish.

Goldman Sachs (GS) appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders pattern. I am waiting for the right shoulder to be formed. The stock has been on the up trend since Mar 2009 and is due for a healthy correction. The 50D MA provides a very strong support line as the stock price bounced back twice in beginning of July and early Sept.

Things to watch out for GS:

• Whether the right shoulder is formed?
• Can the stock price breakdown the 50D MA support (probably concides with the neckline if H&S pattern is formed)?

Apple (AAPL) broke the 20D MA with a long bearish candle last Friday. The long term channel resistance which also coincides with its 50D MA trend line at about $185, is a critical support. Falling below this support could start the correction and see the price fall to $158.19 level (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). Both MACD and RSI are bearish. MACD had confirmed its dead crossover and RSI broke its support trend line.

Things to watch out for AAPL:

• Whether the stock price breakdown from the long term up trend channel resistance?
• After the support is broken, whether AAPL can move back to the channel (i.e. the channel support become very strong resistance to prevent AAPL to move back to the channel)?

Raffles Education - In a Down Trend Channel

Raffles Education is currently on a down trend channel. The stock price is under 20D, 50D and 200D MA which is a very bearish trend. Also note that 20D MA is currently under 200D MA implies great downward momentum in the short term.

Technical Indicators like Parabolic SAR and MACD are near to show bearish convergence. RSI and Stochastic are heading down.