Genting Singapore - Trading Within a Range

Genting Singapore looks like trading within a range from $0.86 (50% Fibonacci Retracement Level)to $0.969 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). It looks like a good pattern to trade if Genting continues to move within this range until the breakout.

From the chart, a mini double bottoms has been formed and Genting may be forming a mini double tops too. The chart looks interesting for me to keep in the short term trade watch list. Feel free to comment if you see other patterns.

Review of Key Indices Patterns

DOW JONE INDUSTRIAL

• DJI is still on the uptrend as the chart pattern shows the index is still having a higher high, lower high.
• 10297 is a critical resistance and DJI has to break this resistance to confirm the uptrend is still intact.
• 9916 is a critical trend support. If DJI breaks this trend support, the next critical support level to watch is 9710. If DJI cannot stay above 9710, it is confirmed that DJI up trend has ended and may start the down trend.

 S&P 500 (SPY)

•  S&P500 appears to be forming a Double Top. Critical support is at about 105 (projected up trend support level). If SPY breaks below this trend support, SPY may be sent down to about 100 level.
• 110.1 is the critical resistance.

 NASDAQ COMPOSITE

•  NASDAQ appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders. If NASDAQ falls below 2041 (neckline) and stay below this level, H&S pattern is confirmed and may send NASDAQ down to 1893.

 Straits Times Index (STI) 

• STI has a similar pattern to S&P500, forming a Double Top.
• Critical uptrend support level is at about 2630. If STI breaks this support, the index may go down 2496 level.
• Critical resistance at 2743.

Base on the chart patterns, DJI, S&P500, NASDAQ and STI probably will be bearish for the next one or two weeks. The market direction may be predicted depends on the patterns confirmation.

ST Engineering - Testing the Resistance 2nd time!

ST Engineering is testing the $2.96 resistance for the 2nd time. If this stock fails to break the resistance, a double top may be formed. Immediate support at $2.82 and critical support at $2.7.

Summary of Analysts' recommendation on ST Engineering:

GoldenAgri - A strong resistance to break!

GoldenAgri is having a very stong resistance at $0.493 to break before the stock price to move uptrend. It is also testing the 20D and 50D MA resistance level. It looks like a double top has been formed too. Base on the chart, bear will take charge in the short term. GoldenAgri really needs a strong bull to break all the resistances to go north!

Singapore Exchange (SGX) - Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

Base on latest FY2009 Financial Report

• PE = 29.4
• Dividend Yield = 3.07%
• NAV = $0.7326
• Net Earning = 51.4%
• Current Ratio = 1.928
• ROA = 21.6%
• ROE = 39.3%

Stock Background

• 3 Years High = $16.3
• Current Price = $8.47

Intrinsic Value Calculaton

PE Model

• Fair value PE, base on FY2010 Forward EPS $0.37843 (Average EPS of 2007, 2008 and 2009)
• Intrinsic Value = $5.68
• PEG = 1.49

Discounted EPS Model

• EPS Growth Rate = capped at 15%
• Discount Rate = 5%
• 2010F EPS = $0.3783 (Average EPS of past three years)
• Intrinsic Value = $6.46

DCF Model

• 2010F Net Operating Cash Flow = $380.429 Million (Average Net Operating Cash Flow for past three years)
• Growth Rate = capped at 15%
• Discount Rate= 5%
• Number of Shares = 1,062.062 Million
• Intrinsic Value = $6.11

SGX stock price is currently overvalue and furthermore a double top has been formed in stock chart. I am waiting SGX to retrace back to about $7.00 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) and re-assess the entry point again. SGX is a good stock for long term investment due to its monopolistic business and long term growth prospect in Singapore (as APAC key financial hub).

Epure International - Double Tops Formation

Epure has formed a double top and probably will start the down trend and retrace back to $0.45 base on 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement by latest end Dec, 2009 (base on Fibonacci Fan).

Epure International is a Leading Water and Wastewater Treatment Solutions Provider and recently won a number of projects. Expect good earning in the near future the projects are completed and revenues are recognised.

Capitaland DOUBLE TOP formation - down trend started?

A double top had been formed on Capitaland indicating the trend reversal. In addition, all Standard Six Indicators are showing bearish convergence. Capitaland closed at $3.63 today with hanging man candle. Stock price broke the 20D & 50D MA support and at the lower end of Bollinger Band. MACD is very close entering bearish convergance at lower half, RSI & Stochastic are showing bearish convergence as well. All technical indicators showed that down trend is going to start. I am sitting back, relax and wait for the big correction before I long this stock. I hope I am right!