My Stocks Investing Journey

Energy ETF: Oil (USO) and UNG (Natural Gas)

2010-10-10T19:31:00.000-07:00

If you are looking for no brainer stocks investment opportunity, you can look at these two energy ETF, USO (United States Oil Fund) and UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund). Energy is a necessity is any economy and we need it every day. Imagine how we are going to live in the modern day without energy.

Energy related stock or ETF have direct correlation with the economy activities. When economy recovery gathers pace, the energy demand and consumption increase and thus drive the energy price up.

Looking at both USO and UNG charts, these two ETF are super under value and post the greatest upside potential. Downside is limited because now we are in slow recovery mode unless the whole world enters into double recession.

USO

Background: The United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") is a domestic exchange traded security designed to track the movements of light, sweet crude oil ("West Texas Intermediate"). USO issues units that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca.
Historical High: US$118
Current Price: about US$36

UNG

Background: The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of natural gas prices. UNG issues units that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca.
Historical High: US$64
Current Price: about US$6

Assuming both ETF shoot up to HALF of the historical high when the economy is fully recover, you can do your math how much upside potential the ETF have…. If you look back the chart in Jan – June 2008, you can see how the bull pushed the price up close to 100% within 6 months. If you time it right, you will be able to achieve your handsome retirement plan. If you are not good at how to time the entry, you can just start to accumulate these ETF and hold for a few years. I am sure you will be rewarded pretty handsomely because you are buying low now and selling high later.

Additional Useful Information for your reference:

If you want to learn how to trade ETF safely, click here.
If you want to find out more on the energy related information for your long term investment, check it out the report here. Hottest Investment Plays In North America: Oil And Gas Bulletin. – by Keith Schaefer

Disclaimer: This is my own analysis and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell the ETF. Use the information at your own risk.

The Start of Bear Market?

2010-05-24T21:57:00.000-07:00

DOW Jones Industrial, S&P500 and NASDAQ Composite have all broken the 200D MA support. All three indices show similar chart pattern and currently traded at about 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. There will be probably a short term bullish rebound from this support level before continuing the bearish down trend. Also take note that all three indices were unable to break the 50D MA resistance and turned down.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Resistance: 20D MA and 200D MA
Support: 10,109 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level) and 10,000 (psychological support)
Target Correction Level: 9,428 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level)

SNP 500

Resistance: 20D MA and 200D MA
Support: 1,094 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level)
Target Correction Level: 1,014 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level)

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance: 2,322 (previous resistance in Dec 2009) and 20D MA
Support: 2,230 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level) and 200D MA
Target Correction Level: 2,046 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level)

STI - 200D MA Support Broken!

2010-05-24T06:00:00.000-07:00

STI has broken the 200D MA support and is heading to test 2660 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level). If this support fails to hold, a bigger correction will happen and STI may go all the way to 2430. The current chart looks bearish but STI may rebound from 2660 support in near term but will face the resistance (200D MA) at about 2770.

IndoAgri - Forming a Double Tops

2010-05-21T21:52:00.000-07:00

IndoAgri is forming a double tops since breaking down from the up trend support. Neckline is at about $1.95. Breaking down the neckline with heavy selling volume will confirm the double tops formation with price target of $1.35.

Golden Agri - Starting a Deeper Correction

2010-05-21T20:56:00.000-07:00

Follow up from previous post.
http://mystocksinvesting.blogspot.com/2010/05/golden-agri-breaks-up-trend-support.html

Golden Agri is unable to move back and went above the up trend support. It is also confirmed that the previous support has turned into resistance. In addition, 200D MA support is also broken. The chart looks bearish and probably starts a deeper correction if there is no rebound from this 200D MA support.

Yangzijiang - Critical Support Broken!

2010-05-21T20:39:00.000-07:00

Yanzijiang has broken a key support level at $1.26 to $1.28. This support is a combination of the up trend support, previous double tops resistance and 50D MA. If Yangzijiang cannot get back and moves above the uptrend support level in the next few days, that indicates the end of the up trend. Next strong support is at $1.14 which is the previous neckline of the double tops and 200D MA. Short term down side risk is about 10% base on the current market sentiment.

Noble Group - Double Tops!

2010-05-21T20:25:00.000-07:00

Noble Group has formed a Double Tops and the neckline has broken. The price target of this double top formation is $1.27 which is also a 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level. The breakdown of the neckline is also confirmed by increase in the selling trading volume.

Pacific Andes - Testing Up Trend Channel's Support

2010-05-18T23:18:00.000-07:00

Pacific Andes is currently testing the uptrend channel support at about $0.314. This channel support coincides with a significant 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level.

Things to watch out for:

Whether there is any trend reversal candlestick pattern to confirm Pacific Andes bounces off this support level. If yes, the uptrend channel is probably still in tact and the next resistance is $0.358.
If this $0.314 support level is broken, the next immediate support is $0.282 (50% FR Level). This level has been proven as a very tough resistance to break for past 4 occasions. This resistance turned support is a significant support level.

Technics Oil & Gas - A Good Entry Level

2010-05-17T06:29:00.000-07:00

Current Technic Gas & Oil stock price looks like a good entry level both technically and fundamentally.

Technical Analysis

The stock price broke out from a Falling Wedge with a price target of $0.63.
The stock price came back to test the Falling Wedge previous resistance and rebounded from this resistance turned support level.
Since then, the stock moves above 20D, 50D and 200D MA and stay above 78.6% FR support.
A "higher high, higher low" up trend chart pattern is observed.

Fundamental Analysis (Base on latest quarter financial performance)

Increasing Net Operating Cash Flow
Dividend about 4.8% (base on $0.57 stock price)
ROA = 14.9 (Annualised)
ROE = 32.1 (Annualised)
Order Book stands at $82 million.
Management expect better FY2010 than FY2009 base on current order book and project schedule.
Company shares buy back recently between $0.565 and $0.57 these few days.
PE = 12.89 (base on $0.57 stock price) versue 2008 PE of 20.6 and 2007 PE of 26.4

Capitaland - Testing an Important Support

2010-05-15T21:22:00.000-07:00

Capitaland is current testing an important support at about $3.63. This support is very significant because it holds very well for the past 5 times (shaded in blue). Currently Capitaland is going to test this support again for the 6th time after fails to break and bounces back from 20D MA resistance (shaded in red). On another hand, Capitaland has shown a "lower high, lower low" bearish chart pattern.

The next immediate support after $3.63 will be $3.402 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).
The next important resistance is $3.854 (78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level) which has been proven to be a strong resistance to break from the previous 5 occassions. In addition, this 78.6% FR level will also be the 50D MA and 200D MA.

Sound Global - Start of Elliot Wave B Now?

2010-05-14T05:09:00.000-07:00

Sound Global is previously Epure International. Sound Global is showing a nice Elliot Wave and looks like starting a Wave B. If the wave count is correct, this level looks like a good entry level to trade the upside of Elliot Wave B.

Ezra - On Elliot Wave C now

2010-05-14T04:53:00.000-07:00

Ezra is currently on Elliot Wave C and is probably heading towards the correction target of $1.805 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) or even lower at $1.55 (50% Fibonacci Retracement Level). Current Ezra chart looks bearish as the stock price has broken the 200D MA support and $2.00 psychological support. 20D MA is falling drastically and is going to cross down the 200D MA.

SATS - Forming a Rising Wedge

2010-05-13T05:26:00.000-07:00

SATS is forming a Rising Wedge pattern. This Rising Wedge pattern in an up trend is a trend reversal pattern.

Technically base on the chart pattern, the upside potential is about 5.4% (from current price of $2.76 to resistance of $2.91). Downside risk is 24% (from current price of $2.76 to $2.10 price target after breaking down from Rising Wedge).

Fundamentally SATS current PE does not show much upside potential. SATS current PE is 16.65 compared to past three years average PE of 17.66.

SATS does not look attractive to me both technically and fundamentally except giving a dividend yield of 4.7%.

Golden Agri - Breaks Up Trend Support

2010-05-11T06:37:00.000-07:00

Golden Agri has broken the up trend support level recently. The key question now is whether Golden Agri can move back up and stay above the up trend support line like what the stock did back in July 2009. If GoldenAgri cannot break this uptrend support turned resistance line, the stock will probably start a deeper correction. The next two immediate supports are $0.50 (200D MA support) and $0.456 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

Genting Singapore - Trading Within a Range

2010-05-11T06:25:00.000-07:00

Genting Singapore looks like trading within a range from $0.86 (50% Fibonacci Retracement Level)to $0.969 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). It looks like a good pattern to trade if Genting continues to move within this range until the breakout.

From the chart, a mini double bottoms has been formed and Genting may be forming a mini double tops too. The chart looks interesting for me to keep in the short term trade watch list. Feel free to comment if you see other patterns.

Keppel Corp - Morning Star!

2010-05-10T06:51:00.000-07:00

A trend reversal candlestick pattern Morning Star is seen in KepCorp after closing today trading session. KepCorp may move above the 20D MA at about $9.50 in the next few trading days. Immediate resistance is at 10.21 after breaking the 20D MA resistance.

OCBC Bank - Upside Potential Limited?

2010-05-10T06:38:00.000-07:00

OCBC Bank is currently trading just above the up trend line and is very near to the resistance level of $9.04. Unless the current sentiment in financial sectors change to a more bullish note, otherwise the downside risk is much higher than upside potential. 20D MA, 50D MA and uptrend support line are also very close to each other. If OCBC breaks below these 3 support levels, the 200D MA will be the level to watch.

StarHub - Hammer!

2010-05-08T21:00:00.000-07:00

Starhub showed a Hammer in the last trading day after the recent sell down. This Hammer is also near the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level which is a significant support indicates a high possibility of trend reversal. Next immediate resistance is at about $2.279 (78.6% FR level and 50D MA).

Although there is a potential trend reversal and the price will go up, but the upside potential of about 3.6% (from $2.20 to $2.28) does not look attractive to me unless I want to acquire Starhub for the quarterly dividend. Anyway, May usually is a bearish month and I will take a wait and see approach to see whether Starhub can drop below $2.00.

SGX - On Down Trend

2010-05-08T20:40:00.000-07:00

SGX has broken 4 supports (20D MA, 50D MA, 200D MA and 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level) in one week. Base on the chart pattern, SGX seems to trading in a slow down trend as the new low is always trading lower than previous low.

Key levels to watch:

SGX may rebound from $7.701 (78.6% FR level) but it is important to see whether SGX can break the 50D MA resistance (at about $7.90). Base on the current sentiment in financial sectors and Eurean PIGS debt crisis, it is unlikely to happen base on my opinion. However, I can only trust the chart more than my opinion base on my last lesson learnt.
If $7.701 support is broken, the near term support is the down trend support at about $7.30. This support may not be strong because it is not very obvious. SGX may go down to $6.878 (61.8% Fibobacci Retracement Level) if this weak down trend support is broken.

In summary, SGX chart is bearish and I am waiting for a clear reversal pattern to pick up this blue chip.

Singapore Press Holding (SPH) - Breaks the Trend Support

2010-05-08T20:23:00.000-07:00

SPH broke all 3 key supports (20D MA, 50D MA and up trend support) in last trading week. The stock price is approacing $3.736 which is 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Support Level. There may be a small rebound in the coming week from this support level. However, if SPH cannot go above $3.90 (the uptrend support and 50D MA), the next important support to watch is 200D MA at about $3.70. SPH may go as low as $3.395 if this 200D MA support is broken.

China Animal Health - Nice Waves on an Up Trend

2010-05-07T06:32:00.000-07:00

China Animal Health seems like trading in Nice Waves on an Up Trend. The wave pattern and support / resistance fit nicely on Fibonacci Fan and Fibonacci Retracement Levels. The Uptrend support (green line) fits exactly to Fibonacci Fan (purple lines) at 38.2% line. Whenever the waves hit this 38.2% lines of Fibonacci Fan (green shaded areas), the stock bounces off and form a new high.

Base on the pattern, it is predicted that China Animal Health may test the 38.2% lines at about $0.27. If the stock price bounces of this $0.27 support level, it will test the previous high of $0.36 and may possibly continues the "Waves Pattern in the Fibonacci Fans" if this $0.36 resistance is broken.

It looks attractive to me to enter at $0.27 with a potential upside 33% to reach $0.36 or even higher. However, it is important to wait for the candlestick pattern to reverse before entering the trade.

Rotary Engineering - Bullish Engulfing Pattern!

2010-05-07T05:01:00.000-07:00

Rotary Engineering is showing a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern today. This is a trend reversal pattern after a down trend.

Next Immediate Support is at about $1.00.
Next Immediate Resistance is at $1.06 which is 50D MA, 200D MA and 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level.
In order for Rotary to start an uptrend, the stock price need to stay above $1.10 which is above all three MA first, and subsequently clear $1.18. Otherwise Rotary may be moving sideway between $1.00 and $1.18.

CSE Global - Break the Up Trend Support

2010-05-07T04:50:00.000-07:00

CSE Global has broken an up trend support and currently trading below 20D and 50D MA. The candlestick shows a potential formation of a Morning Star but need to wait for the confirmation of next trading day. Next immediate support is at $0.86 which is a 200D MA support and also 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level. The stock has to go above $1.00 to keep the up trend in tact.

IndoAgri - Break Critical Support

2010-05-07T04:38:00.000-07:00

IndoAgri seems to have broken the uptrend support which is also the support for a Double Tops chart pattern, with a spike in trading volume. If IndoAgri cannot move back above the support level (about $2.25), the stock may go down to $1.713 which is a Double Tops breakout price target and also 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level.

Financial ETF (XLF) - Good time to short!

2010-05-07T01:08:00.000-07:00

The European debt crisis has triggered panic selling in the banks and financial stocks worldwide. I am entering a XLF SEP 15 PUT option to ride on the slide of the current financial sectors sell down.
XLF (Financial ETF) has broken the 50D MA support and heading towards the next immediate support of $14.723 (78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level and also 200D MA support). If this support level is broken, a deeper correction will probably start in the financial sector.

Europe PIGS Debt - I owe you, you owe me! Who is going to pay?

2010-05-06T18:53:00.000-07:00

Banks and governments in these five shaky economies owe each other many billions of euros — converted here to dollars — and have even larger debts to Britain, France and Germany. Arrow widths are proportional to debt amounts.

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) - A Good Candidate to Short?

2010-05-06T02:24:00.000-07:00

JPM has just broken 200D MA support and looks like a good short candidate in May. In addition, the cloud is still very dark in the financial sectors on top of the "Sell in May & Go Away" sentiment.

Things to watch:

Whether JPM can stay above 200D MA. If not, the next immediate support will be $40.923. If this 61.8% FR level support is broken too, JPM will be very bearish and starts the down trend.
If JPM bounces back from 200D and breaks the 50D MA resistance at about $44.00, the bull will be coming back.

I have entered my JPM SEP 43 PUT position and will be watching very closely these two levels.

Citigroup (C) - Testing 50D MA

2010-05-06T02:09:00.000-07:00

US Financial stocks have been very bearish recently due to the debt concerns over PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain). This may present a good opportunity to buy some good financial stocks during this correction in May. Citigroup is one of the financial stocks for long term investing and I am waiting for the right entry point. Base on the chart, C is currently testing 50D MA. I am waiting to see whether C can stay above 200D MA support at $4.00 before deciding my entry point. If this 200D MA support is broken, $3.655 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) looks like a good entry point to start stock accumulation.

Sinotel - Testing Support of a Falling Wedge

2010-05-05T22:00:00.000-07:00

Sinotel has been on down trend recently after breaking 20D, 50D and 200D MA support. The stock appears to be forming a Falling Wedge and Sinotel is currently testing the support at about $0.395 (Falling wedge support at 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level). If this support is broken, Sinotel may go down to $0.317.

Yangzijiang - Bounces off from the support and reverse the trend

2010-05-05T20:51:00.000-07:00

Yangzijiang has bounces back from the support of $1.26 and looks like reverse the trend to up trend.

$1.26 is the combination of three suppports (Double Top Resistance turned Support, Up Trend Support and 50D MA support). Next immediate resistance is $1.472.

My Blog Has Moved to http://mystocksinvesting.com

2009-12-31T07:25:00.000-08:00

Dear Readers,
Thank you for your continuous support on my blog. In order to have a more secured blogging environment, I have moved my blog to http://mystocksinvesting.com/ using a self host paid server on Jan 1st, 2010. I will post all my new posts in the new site from Jan 1st, 2010 onwards.

I have also included videos to explain those technical terms I use in the chart analysis. You can find the following education topics in my new site:
(1) Candlesticks Pattern
(2) Chart Pattern
(3) Technical Indicators

Lastly, I wish everyone a Happy 2010 New Year!

With Best Wishes,
Marubozu

P/S: I will keep this Google Blogspot site for a while before shutting down.

Yangzijiang - Moving Sideway?

2009-12-28T17:22:00.000-08:00

Found an interesting chart pattern on Yangzijiang. Yangzijing took a breather to move sideway after every upside with reduction in trading volume.
The 1st consolidation (Jun to mid July) lasted for 1.5 months.
The 2nd consolidation (Aug to mid Nov) lasted for 3.5 months.
The 3rd consolidation (Dec to ??) - how long with it last?

Things to watch out:

$1.118 is the key support (61.8% Retracement Level for short term - red, 50D MA and the uptrend support - green line). If this support is broken, the trend will be reversed and Yangzijiang may go down to $0.906 (long term 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level - black) for healthy correction. Yangzijiang is still on a long term uptrend as 200D MA line is still moving up.

Jaya Holding - Successful Breakout!

2009-12-28T17:08:00.000-08:00

Jaya Holding has finally broke out successfully and hit the target price of $0.58.
http://mystocksinvesting.blogspot.com/2009/12/jaya-holding-is-this-time-real.html
The next resistance is seen at $0.60.
The immediate support is around $0.57 and $0.58.

Courage Marine - Still Directionless

2009-12-28T17:00:00.000-08:00

Courage Marine is still in the consolidation phase due to lack of trading volume. The stock price is currently trading within a tight support ($0.185) and resistance ($0.19 which is a 200D MA) range.

Things to watch out:

The moving direction of 20D MA will determine whether the trend is moving down or moving up.
The presence of the trading volume if the stock price breaks the support or resistance.
Without the above two indication, Courage Marine probably will move sideway for a while.

Cosco - Breaking Out from a Falling Wedge?

2009-12-28T16:51:00.000-08:00

Can this breakout successful from a Falling Wedge? Target Price for successful breakout is $1.30.

Things to watch out:

20D Crosses 50D MA to show the bullish strength.
Return of the trading volume.
The next higher high has to be more than $1.15 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) to show an uptrend. A higher low has been formed ($1.05 with reference to $1.00).

U.S. lifts $400 billion cap for Fannie, Freddie - CNBC

2009-12-27T20:48:00.000-08:00

U.S. lifts $400 billion cap for Fannie, Freddie - CNBC

FRE

Immediate Support: $1.036

Immediate Resistance: $1.297

FNM

Immediate Support: $0.917

Immediate Resistance: $1.132

Things to watch out:

20D MA crosses up 50D MA - A bullish sign.
Whether FRE & FNM can stay above the 200D MA
Whether FRE & FNM can show a higher high & higher low uptrend pattern.

Keppel Corp - Forming A Rising Wedge

2009-12-25T05:18:00.000-08:00

Keppel Corp is having a Rising Wedge in an up trend. This is a trend reversal pattern if KepCorp breakouts and moves down. The stock is currently trading just below 20D and 50D MA.

Noble - On A Uptrend Channel

2009-12-25T05:00:00.000-08:00

Noble is still moving up in an uptrend channel. Resistance seens at $3.23. Noble has been on the uptrend since April without a major healthy correction. OCBC Investment Research has a BUY rating for Noble with a fair value price of $3.73 (base on 14.1 PE ratio of FY2010F).

Wilmar - Waiting For The Breakout

2009-12-25T04:48:00.000-08:00

Wilmar is forming a Symmetrical Triangle and looks like going to breakout soon. If Wilmar breakout and move up, target price is $7.40. If Wilmar breakout and move down, the stock may move to $5.30. OCBC Investment Research has a BUY rating for Wilmar with a fair price of $8.23 (base on FY10F 20x EPS)

Citigroup - Has Down Trend Started?

2009-12-22T00:28:00.000-08:00

Citigroup (C) said last Wednesday that it was on the verge of raising $17 billion (at a price of $3.15 per share) from investors toward repaying its federal aid. That discount was much larger than expected, leading the Treasury Department to postpone its plans to start selling the government's 34% stake in Citigroup. Treasury had expected to reap a substantial profit on the shares, which it acquired at $3.25, but selling now would instead result in a loss of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Citigroup's chart appears to be on the down trend. The stock price is currently below 20D, 50D and 200D MA. If Citigroup breaks below $3.16 (50% Fibonacci Retracement Level), the next support is $2.655. I am planning to invest in this speculative stock and waiting for the right price to enter.

Olam - Breaking Down From A Rising Wedge?

2009-12-21T19:36:00.000-08:00

Olam appears breaking out (down) from a rising wedge. This rising wedge in an uptrend is a trend reversal pattern. If this $2.60 support turn to resistance, a breakout (down) is considered successful and the down trend will start. Next critical support is $2.50, if this support is broken, a double top is formed and this is a further confirmation of down trend. The stock price may go down to $2.085. Also take note that Olam has broken down 20D and 50D MA. All these patterns are bearish signals.

Epure - Reached The Target!

2009-12-20T01:33:00.000-08:00

Epure close last Friday at $0.735 with a bullish opening marubozu candle. Epure has climbed too fast to reach the price target after breaking out from a Bullish Symmetrical Triangle and I have no chance to enter the trade. Anyway, I am not going to chase this stock and will probably wait for next opportunity.

Last analysis:

http://mystocksinvesting.blogspot.com/search/label/Epure%20International

SGX - In A Bearish Descending Triangle

2009-12-20T01:24:00.000-08:00

SGX stock price is gyating in a Descending Triangle. Normally this chart pattern (Descending Triangle in an up trend) is bearish and will reverse the trend. If SGX breaks down the Descending Triangle support line, the stock price may go down to $6.90 to $7.00 range.

UNG - Going To Reverse The Trend!

2009-12-20T01:11:00.000-08:00

UNG is showing signs of reversing a down trend to up trend. Technically & fundamentally (economy perspective) this Natural Gas ETF is due for a long term up trend. I summarise my Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis as below:

Fundamental Analysis (Economic Perspective)

Economy has started to recover. The demand of natural gas will increase due to increasing economy activities like manufacturing, transportation likes car and truck, cold winter, etc.
Natural gas is another sort of popular green energy to be used widely in future where the world is determine to cut emissions of greenhouse gases.
Natural gas will be part of the energy substitution to petrol for all the car users.
Due to the low economy activities during the recession, natural gas is over supply and thus, there is no more natural gas storage space left. The major gas producers are now being forced to cut production; a move which may actually be beneficial to the industry as a whole as it will likely help boost prices, thus restoring margins for many producers.

Technical Analysis (Base on Chart Patterns)

A double bottom (or inverted head and shoulders) has been formed.
UNG broke out from the falling wedge resistance with increase in trading volume.

Things to look out for

The falling wedge resistance turns support, i.e. the stock price does not return to the falling wedge.
UNG breaks the $12.25 resistance (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). This level is also probably the 200D MA if I extrapolate the 200D MA line.
The next lower low does not happen below $8.50 (historial low!)
20D crosses over 50D MA.

Citigroup - Testing Critical Support

2009-12-15T07:08:00.000-08:00

Citigroup is currently testing its critical support at about $3.667. This is the support of a falling wedge and also the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level, AND the 200D MA support level. If Citigroup breakdown this significant support level, the stock may start the down trend.

Raffles Education is Falling Down, Faling Down, Falling Down!

2009-12-15T06:29:00.000-08:00

Raffles Education continues to fall in the down trend and forming falling wedge. The stock price is currently below 20D, 50D and 200D MA and the chart is very bearish.

Things to watch out for trend reversal (ie. stock price to move up)

The stock price breaks the falling wedge resistance with healthy volume.
The stock price stay above the falling wedge resistance turned support line.
The stock price cross 20D MA.

Jaya Holding - Is This Time Real?

2009-12-15T06:18:00.000-08:00

Jaya Holding closed today at $0.495 with a opening marubozu candle with a spike in volume and breaks out from a Symmetrical Triangle. However, it remain to be seen whether this is a successful breakout due to the past 3 attempts. One thing to note that the spike in volume in diminishing compares to the previos one, and this is not a sign for a bullish & sustainable breakout. The past three spikes in the stock price were not sustainable due to lack of volume for the next few days. If this breakout is successful, the price target is $0.58.

StarHub - Forming a Rising Wedge

2009-12-15T06:01:00.000-08:00

Starhub is forming a rising wedge. $2.07 is an important resistance. If StarHub breakout this rising wedge with healthy volume, the target price is $2.17. If this stock fails the breakout, the stock price will fall back and gyrate within the rising wedge until the next breakout.

Property Counters - Unlikely to see rally in the short term

2009-12-11T05:31:00.000-08:00

A quick scan at some Singapore property counters like City Development, Capitaland, Keppel Land and Allgreen, the charts tell that unlikely there will be rally in the near term in addition to the thin trading volume.

City Development is entering into consolidation phase with reduction in the trading volume. The chart is currently showing Price Volume Divergence indicates that up trend is not sustainable if the volume does not return. It is important to see whether $10.40 can turn from resistance to support line with healthy volume.

Capitaland is showing the similar Price Volume Divergence and the stock price is gyrating around $4.10. It is important to see whether this stock is able to turn this $4.10 resistance level to support level with healthy volume. Otherwise, the uptrend is not sustainable.

Keppel Land is also showing the similar Price Volume Divergence. The stock price will probably gyrate around $3.20 for a while after breaking up from $2.81 resistance level recently.

Allgreen has been moving in a sideway for two months with thin volume at about $1.15. The stock needs some catalist before the stock price moves again. There is no clear direction where the stock price will move in the near future.

China Zaino - Finally 5th Wave Started!

2009-12-09T04:41:00.000-08:00

China Zaino broke out from the channel and started the Elliot 5th Wave finally. The long term uptrend is still intact as the stock still shows "higher high, lower high" type of pattern. Note that Wave 1 and Wave 3 took 2-3 months to achieve the high, this Wave 5 will probably take a similar 2-3 months to achieve new high.

China HongXing - Breaking Out From A Down Trend Channel

2009-12-09T04:22:00.000-08:00

China HongXing looks like Breaking Out From A Down Trend Channel with an increase in a trading volume for the past two days. The stock price broke the 20D and 50D MA resistance, and MACD starts turning bullish. Immediate support between $0.18 to $0.19, next resistance at $0.215.

SinoTechFibre - Breaking Out From Falling Wedge?

2009-12-09T04:12:00.000-08:00

SinoTechFibre appears to Breaking Out From a Falling Wedge. However, it remains to be seen whether the breakout is successful due to low trading volume. Price target is $0.19 if the breakout is successful. Next resistance at $0.17. Immediate support at $0.145.

Apple (AAPL) - 10th Candle Reversal!

2009-12-07T05:34:00.000-08:00

AAPL appeared to have a Tenth Candle Reversal base on the monthly chart. This pattern is bearish and AAPL will probably start retracing to $160 level (61.8% Fibonacci Level).

Weekly chart showed APPL has broken 4 Weeks (1 month) MA & at 12 Weeks (3 months) MA.

Daily chart showed APPL broke 20D & 50D MA support line and currently at the lower band of Bollinger Band. The daily, weekly and monthly charts show the deep correction has started for AAPL.

Review of Key Indices Patterns

2009-12-07T02:59:00.000-08:00

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

DJI is at the top of channel resistance. If the index cannot break this channel resistance (about 10,500), it may retrace back to 10,100 level (close to channel support) in the coming one to two weeks.

S&P500 (SPY)

S&P500 has a similar uptrend channel pattern as DJI. If the index cannot break this channel resistance (about 112), it may retrace back to 107 (close to channel support) level in the coming one to two weeks.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

NASDAQ is hitting a critical resistance at 2191 level. It is important to see whether NASDAQ can break this resistance and continue its uptrend.

Straits Time Index (STI)

STI broke the previous resistance of 2,734 and continue its uptrend in a channel. 2,800 is a key resistance level and STI may retrace back to 2,670 (channel support) if STI is unable to stay above this resistance level.

Intel (INTC) - Breaking out from Symmetrical Triangle and Bullish!

2009-12-04T19:31:00.000-08:00

Intel (INTC) is breaking out from a Symmetrical Triangle with increase in trading volume. This breakout is a bullish signal and also confirmed by the Technical Indicators. Price target is around $22.50.

Technical Indicators

Stock price above 20D, 50D and 200D MA.
MACD crossover and move into bullish convergence region.
RSI is going up.
Stochastic is going up.
Stock price is above Parabolic SAR line.
Stock price is at above Bollinger Band.

GS - Bullish Abandoned Baby Pattern Failure?

2009-12-04T06:31:00.000-08:00

GS formed a Bullish Abandoned Baby (another name is Morning Doji Star) pattern a few days ago but the trend did not reverse to up trend. The trend will normally continue if there is a pattern failure, and the H&S formation remains valid for the time being. I am watching closely whether GS will break the neckline and the support of $158.4. If these two supports are broken, GS will start a deep correction to about $138 level.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) - Head & Shoulders Formed!

2009-12-04T02:45:00.000-08:00

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) has formed a Head & Shoulders. If the stock breaks down the neckline of $26.50 with high volume, the stock may fall towards $22.37 level.
Technical Indicators like MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Parabolic SAR & Bollinger Band confirmed the bearish trend. WFC is also below 20D and 50D MA.

Epure - Breaking out from a Bullish Symmetrical Triangle!

2009-12-03T05:56:00.000-08:00

Epure breaks out from a Bullish Symmetrical Triangle with heaving trading volume today (17 Million shares traded). The stock may return to test $0.60 support (Symmetrical Triangle's resistance turned support line) and the price target is $0.70 if Epure stays above $0.60.

Yanlord - Breaking Out from a Wedge!

2009-12-03T04:53:00.000-08:00

Yanlord is going to breakout from a falling wedge. Past two trading sessions ended with two Bullish Marubozu candles with increased in volume.

Current stock price ($2.41) has broken 20D and 50D MA resistance line.
MACD has crossovered the signal line and moving into bullish convergence region.
RSI and Stochastic are heading upward.
Stock price is at the upper Bollinger Band and above Parabolic SAR line.

Price target remains the same as previous analysis of about $2.85 after breakout. Yanlord has to stay above $2.40 (a critical resistance turned support level of the falling wedge) before reaching the target. Otherwise, the stock will fall back and gyrate in this falling wedge.

General Electric (GE) - Another Nice Elliot Wave!

2009-12-02T07:05:00.000-08:00

GE seems to have started the Wave 5. The stock would probably move up to $19.63 (161.8% Fibonacci Retracement Leve). Price between $15 to $16 is a good entry level because $14.68 should be a very strong support for a higher high, higher low type of up trend Elliot Wave.

Where and how did I learn my investing knowledge from?

2009-12-01T00:58:00.000-08:00

I received some emails asking me recently where I learned my investing knowledge from. I tried to summarize my learning steps as simple as possible for easy reference.

I started investing as a newbie six months ago. I had no idea where to start and how to start initially. Basically my learning of investing knowledge divided to 3 stages:

(1) Reading Books
(2) Attending Investing Courses
(3) Put what I have learned from the books and course into practice.

There are a few books to help me get started. These books are easy to read to give me an overall idea what is stock investing is about and what other knowledge I need to acquire before start investing or trading. I suggest reading these books in sequence so that you will not get lost and get confused.

Reading Books

1. Handbook for Stock Investors by Goh Kheng Chuan. This book is for newbie who has totally NO idea on what is stock investing about. It covers very basic information like:

a. What is stock market?
b. What is a broker? How to open a trading account? Who are the brokers and where to find them?
c. What is a contract statement & confirmation note?
d. How and where to pay for the shares?
e. How to use Central Provident Fund (CPF) for investment? How to apply for CPF Investment Account?
f. What are the Terms and Procedures for placing an order? When is the Trading hour?
g. What are the factors affecting stock price?
h. What is Technical Analysis? Introduction of Basic Technical Indicators.
i. Introduction of Basic Patterns of a chart.
j. Basic information of picking a right stock.
k. What is Blue chip stock and penny stock?
l. Basic financial information of a stock like PE Ratio (Price Per Earning Ratio), EPS (Earning Per Share), Dividend Yield, ROE (Return on Equity), etc.
m. How to read an Annual Report of a company. Brief Introduction of financial statement like Balance Sheet (B/S), Profit & Loss Statement (P&L) and Cash Flow Statement.
n. How to derive the important ratio like P/B Ratio (Price to Book ratio), Current Ratio, etc. from the Financial Statement.
o. What is New Shares Issues? What is IPO (Initial Public Offerring)? How to subscribe for these shares?
p. How to use the internet for your investment?

2. Profit from the Panic by Adam Khoo, Conrad Alvin Lim & Ryan Huang. This book is suitable for beginner and intermediate investors, specially written how to make profit from stocks market during this recession. It is quite easy to read and understand. The book covers:

a. How did the financial collapse all begin? Who are the victims of this crisis?
b. Understanding on how the stock market works.
c. Looking back the past 50 years of stock market history and derive some conclusion.
d. How to buy the markets & sectors during this crisis? How and where to identify those markets and sectors?
e. How to find great under value stocks amidst the chaos?
f. How to find market bottoms and tops using the chart patterns?
g. How market operating in a cycle?
h. Introduction of critical economic data (e.g. Interest Rate, GDP, Non-Farm Payroll, CPI, ISM Index) that influence the stock market.

3. Secret of Millionaire Investors by Adam Khoo & Conrad Alvin Lim. This book is a good reference book for stocks investors as it covers all necessary knowledge & investing strategies on how to make profit from the stock market. More importantly, it is quite easy to read and understand.

a. What are the risks involved of investing in the stock market?
b. Which investment vehicle gives the highest return?
c. The idiot-proof way of making money.
d. Introduction of various ETF (Exchange Traded Fund).
e. What is Value Investing? Step by step guide on how to select a good company with wide economy moat, evaluate a company (business prospect and financial prospect), how to do research of a company, etc.
f. How to calculate Intrinsic Value (IV) of a company? How to value a company using different models like DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model, PE ratio, PEG ratio, etc.
g. When to buy and when to sell?
h. Introduction of Candlesticks and Technical Indicators for Momentum Investing.
i. Introduction of Options. Using options to reduce risk and boost return.

4. Handbook on Forex Trading by Nicholas Tan. I use this book to understand more on the candlestick pattern and technical analysis. Topic covers:
a. Introduction of FX (Foreign Exchange).
b. Understanding FX basics.
c. Candlesticks Introduction (Reversal Pattern like Morning Star, Evening Star, Bullish Engulfing, etc)
d. Chart Patterns (Head & Shoulders, Double Top, Flag & Pennant, Triangle, etc)
e. Using Technical Indicators in FX trading.
f. Putting all together (combining patterns and indictors) to increase the success rate of trading.

Attending Investing Courses

I was not able to understand 100% what have been written in the book and thus made me decided to sign up a course to make my learning more effective and efficient. Everything written in the book remain as information and does not really necessary useful until we apply it. Knowledge without proper application is a waste. It is a disaster if we apply the knowledge wrongly. There are lots more minor things that I pick up from the course which I don’t find it in the book. Besides, attending right courses speed up my knowledge acquisition and shorten the learning curve. However, one thing to make sure is to select the course that suitable to one’s needs and investing styles. Not all courses are suitable to everyone. If you want to find out more what course I’ve attended, you can drop me an email at marubozu1688@gmail.com. I don’t intend to do any advertisement of the courses here because that is not my intention.

Putting everything into practice

After reading books and attended the courses, I found myself still not able to make good analysis and make profit from the stock market. I start to realize that Knowledge without actual application is nothing! I then decided I had to be hands on to start analyzing the stocks by reading annual report, calculating intrinsic value, drawing support resistance lines, applying Fibonacci Analysis, etc. The more stocks I analyzed, the more I started to realize how insufficient the knowledge I had to do a proper stock analysis. I went back to refer to the course notes, flipping books, reading other traders’ analysis report and asking my course mates to double check my analysis.

It is quite tough for a start but after a few rounds of practices and received some great feedbacks of my analysis in the blog, my stock analysis skills have improved drastically. I am able to do a quick scan on the companies’ financial statement to screen and shortlist good stock, do quick assessments on the companies’ financial health status, recognize some chart patterns and candlesticks pattern without referring too much from the books.

I compile some useful website for quick reference and education purposes.

Internet Resources (Free)

1. Fundamental Analysis http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fundamentalanalysis.asp

2. Technical Analysis http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp

3. Candlesticks http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp

4. Financial Ratio Formula & Explanation http://www.bizwiz.ca/ratio_calculation_formulas/financial_ratios_formulas_and_explanations.html

Genting Singapore - Forming a Bearish Descending Triangle?

2009-11-30T06:41:00.000-08:00

Genting appears to be forming a Bearish Descending Triangle in an up trend. If this triangle is formed and the stock price breakdown from the triangle support, a trend reversal pattern is confirmed. In addition, Genting has just broken 20D and 50D MA support lines. RSI is heading south (31% now) and MACD shows bearish convergence. These are Sell signals.

SIA - Breaks 20D & 50D MA Support!

2009-11-30T03:16:00.000-08:00

SIA closed today at $13.30 with a shooting star (Inverted Hammer) with increase in trading volume. The stock has broken below 20D and 50D MA support and other indicators like MACD, RSI, Stochastic Parabolic SAR, Bollinger Band showed weakness in the near term. SIA may retrace back to $12.10 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

StarHub - 5% price dropped after ex-Dividend. What next to SingTel?

2009-11-27T01:36:00.000-08:00

Starhub stock price dropped about 5% after ex-Dividend date on Nov 24. The stock price broke 20D and 50D MA support and looked very bearish. MACD is also showing Bearish Convergence and further down trend is expected. Next critical support is $1.83 which is very close to 52 weeks historical low of $1.76.

Base on this pattern, it is predicted that SingTel may go down to $2.75 (5% drop with reference to current $2.90 and if the stock price stays about this level) after ex-Dividend date on Dec 18. SingTel may go to bearish mode if $2.90 support is broken. This $2.90 is a very critical support where this is also the 20D MA, 50A MA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level. Last 5% price drop was observed after the ex-Dividend date on Aug 5. Would this pattern repeat on SingTel itself again?

Both charts look bearish and I am waiting for the stock price to hit bottom before buying for long term investment (for dividend collection).

Yangzijiang - Breaking out from an Ascending Triangle

2009-11-25T19:22:00.000-08:00

Yangzijiang broke out from an Ascending Triangle on an uptrend with an increase in volume. If the stock retests $1.06 and can stay above this resistance turned support level, the price target is about $1.32 (but need to clear $1.243 resistance first).

Agrium Inc (AGU) - Nice Candlesticks Patterns to Trade!

2009-11-24T05:41:00.000-08:00

Agrium has been showing nice & reliable candlestick patterns to trade. Some far the candlesticks patterns have been realiable to predict the future price movement. So far, a few reliable trend reversal patterns like Morning Star, Evening Star, Bearish Kicker were seen. A Dark Cloud Cover pattern was formed on Nov 23 closing, this is another trend reversal pattern. By looking at the chart, AGU bounced back from the resistance of $57.69 and due to pulling back from its recent up trend. I am planning for a PUT option for AGU.

Jaya Holding - Breaking out from the Symmetrical Triangle

2009-11-24T05:15:00.000-08:00

Jaya Holding looks like breaking out from the Symmetrical Triangle.

Technical Indicators also look bullish:

Stock price above 20D, 50D and 200D MA.
Stock price at upper Bollinger Band
Stock price is below Parabolic SAR curve
MACD Bullish Convergence
RSI & Stochastic at Overbought region.

However, this bullishness may not be sustainable due to lack of volume.

Goldman Sachs - Going to complete Right Shoulder!

2009-11-23T04:17:00.000-08:00

GS appears close to complete the forming of right shoulder. The stock is unable to break the uptrend support turned resistance line & its 50D MA. If GS breaks the neckline, the stock may be sent down to $144.
Other Technical Indicators (MACD, Parabolic SAR, RSI, Stochastic, Bollinger Band) start to show bearish convergence.

Rotary Engineering - Going to breakdown from a Descending Triangle?

2009-11-20T09:11:00.000-08:00

Rotary Engineering has formed a descending triangle. The stock price is currently below 20D and 50D MA. If Rotary breaks down from this descending triangle, it may go down to $0.80.

China Fishery - 5th Wave has started!

2009-11-20T08:24:00.000-08:00

China Fishery has started the 5th Wave, normally the biggest wave of an Elliot Wave. The retracements are very well fitted in this Fibonacci Retracement.
Wave 1 & Wave 2: Retracement from 100% level to 61.8% level
Wave 3 & Wave 4: Retracement from 123.6% level to 100% level.

Will Wave 5 & Wave A retrace from 150% ($1.638) level to 123.6% ($1.433) level, before moving to 161.8% ($1.729) level? This pattern may help me to make some money.

Review of Key Indices Patterns

2009-11-15T07:53:00.000-08:00

DOW JONE INDUSTRIAL

DJI is still on the uptrend as the chart pattern shows the index is still having a higher high, lower high.
10297 is a critical resistance and DJI has to break this resistance to confirm the uptrend is still intact.
9916 is a critical trend support. If DJI breaks this trend support, the next critical support level to watch is 9710. If DJI cannot stay above 9710, it is confirmed that DJI up trend has ended and may start the down trend.

S&P 500 (SPY)

S&P500 appears to be forming a Double Top. Critical support is at about 105 (projected up trend support level). If SPY breaks below this trend support, SPY may be sent down to about 100 level.
110.1 is the critical resistance.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

NASDAQ appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders. If NASDAQ falls below 2041 (neckline) and stay below this level, H&S pattern is confirmed and may send NASDAQ down to 1893.

Straits Times Index (STI)

STI has a similar pattern to S&P500, forming a Double Top.
Critical uptrend support level is at about 2630. If STI breaks this support, the index may go down 2496 level.
Critical resistance at 2743.

Base on the chart patterns, DJI, S&P500, NASDAQ and STI probably will be bearish for the next one or two weeks. The market direction may be predicted depends on the patterns confirmation.

SPH - Broke Critical Support Levels!

2009-11-11T02:50:00.000-08:00

SPH seems to have broken below the 9 months uptrend support, 20D and 50D MA support with a spike in volume. Below chart plotted base on Fibonacci Level on uptrend since Mar 2009.

Looking at from another perspective in a longer term view (Fibonacci Level on down trend since Dec 2008), SPH is unable to break the $3.859 resistance level.

Base on two different perspective, critical support level for SPH is between $3.565 (50% Fibonacci Level on 2nd chart) to $3.597 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 1st chart, gray color). I simplify it to $3.58 as a critical level to watch.
Next critical support is between $3.271 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 2nd chart) to $3.352 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 1st chart, blue color). I simplify it to $3.31 as a critical level to watch.
SPH closing price for today is $3.74.

StarHub - Raised its Quarterly Dividend from 4.5 cents to 5 cents

2009-11-11T02:16:00.000-08:00

StarHub closed at $2.04 with a long opening marubozu candle (bullish candle) today after reported 3rd quarter result and raised its quarterly dividend from 4.5 cents to 5 cents, implied a Dividend Yield of 9.8%. The increase in quarterly dividend comes as a surprise because there is a concern over StarHub's ability to sustain its earning and cash flow on its recent loss of BPL (Barclay Premier League) broadcasting right.

StarHub stock charts broke up the 20D MA and currently testing the 50D MA resistance at $2.04 with a spike in volume. The stock price is still below 200D MA. Immediate support is at $2.01.

Summary of Analysts' Rating on StarHub:

Hyflux - Forming a Right Shoulder?

2009-11-10T02:13:00.000-08:00

Hyflux appears to be forming a right shoulder. The downward target is $2.60 if the stock price breaks the neckline of $2.90. Hyflux has been on uptrend since Mar 2009, it needs a correction back to $2.475 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) for a long term healthy up trend.

KS Energy - Breakdown from Wedge

2009-11-09T06:35:00.000-08:00

My previous analysis (http://mystocksinvesting.blogspot.com/2009/10/ks-energy-forming-wedge.html) came true after KS Energy breakdown from the wedge. Today KS Energy closed at $1.06 with hanging man after a Bullish Harami. This stock may consolidate or rebound a little bit before heading towards the breakdown target of $0.85.

Raffles Education - Bounced back from the Channel Support?

2009-11-06T23:09:00.000-08:00

Raffles Education closed at $0.445 on Friday and formed a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern. Coincidently, the stock price bounced back from the $0.435 supports level (38.2% Fibonacci Level and Channel Support). If next session opens with a gap up and closes with a bullish long white candle, a Three Inside Up pattern is formed which confirm a trend reversal.

Another thing to take note is there were Insiders Trading for the past three months. The substantial shareholders were increasing their shares holding. Mr. Chew Hua Seng is the Chairman & CEO, Ms Doris Chung Gim Lian is the spouse of Mr. Chew, Mr. Henry Tan Song Kok is the Independant Director.

The analysis shows it is rather safe to trade at this price level due to the following reasons:

Strong Support (Channel Support and Fibonacci Level) base on the chart.
Bullish Harami candlestick normally either moves sideway or upward (trend reversal)
Price of Insiders's transaction between $0.475 to $0.55.

Thus, the downside probability is minimal.

My Swing Trading Plan:

Entry Level $0.44 to $0.46
Profit Target = 10%

US Real unemployment really bad!

2009-11-06T06:08:00.000-08:00

The U.S. Labor Department reported that payrolls fell by 190,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 10.2%, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million. But the real unemployment is more than that!

American Express (AXP) - Forming a Rising Wedge

2009-11-05T02:56:00.000-08:00

AXP is forming a Rising Wedge. If AXP breakdown from this pattern, it has the potential to retrace back to $30.867 in the short term. AXP is currently on a long term uptrend as 200D MA is heading up.

American Express (AXP) - Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

2009-11-05T02:49:00.000-08:00

Base on TTM (Trailing Twelve Months):

Current Price = $35.96
PE = 25.32
Dividend Yield = 2%
Net Earning (TTM) = 6.74% (9.5% in 2008)
ROA (TTM) = 1.34% (Not applicable to my criteria of ROA > 10% because Financial institution generally have very low ROA)
ROE (TTM) = % 12.5% (23.6% in 2008)
EPS (TTM) = $1.42 ($2.33 in 2008)

Intrinsic Value Calculation (DCF Model)

Next 10 Year Average Projected Growth Rate = 10.3%
Discount Rate = 10% (I use 10% to factor in the USD / SGD currency risk and economy risk in US)
Number of Shares = 1,190 million
2008 Free Cash Flow = $7,689 million (Operating Cash Flow minus Capital Expenditure)
Intrinsic Value = $65.59

Intrinsic Value Calculation (Discounted EPS Model)

Growth Rate = 10.3%
Discount Rate = 10%
EPS (TTM) = $1.42
Intrinsic Value = $14.41

Intrinsic Value Calculation (PE Model)

Fair value PE = 15, intrinsic value= $21.30 (base on EPS $1.42)
PEG = 2.45 (Current Price is Over value!)

Stock Background

Historical High = $65.55
52 Weeks High = $36.44
52 Weeks Low = $10.26

So, which intrinsic value to use?
I will be using the Intrinsic Value ($21.30) derived from the PE Model. My reasons:

Although the Intrinsic Value calculated from DCF Model is $65.59, however AXP may not be going up to this price base on historical high of $65.55.
The intrinsic value ($14.41) derived from the Discounted EPS Model may be too conservative as the 52 weeks historical low is $10.26. Unless there is another big market crash due to financial crisis, it is unlikely AXP going back to this level again.
By doing a comparison between American Express, MasterCard and Visa, the Intrinsic Value ($21.30) derived from the simple PE Model looks more realistic.

The financial sector in generally in a very bad shape and it is safer to take a more conservative approach in valuing a financial institution. We don't really know how many more banks are there goint to bankcrupt and how much inter-link toxic assets affecting each other. Furthermore, this is potential personal credit risks due to continous high unemployment rate in US. These credit card companies may have lot more undisclosed bad debts if the economy condition worsen.

China Zaino - Is this 200D MA Support Strong Enough?

2009-11-04T02:54:00.000-08:00

China Zaino is testing its critical support at $0.23 (200D MA support) to $0.235 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

Base on Elliot Wave pattern, China Zaino shall bounce back from this support and start the 5th Wave. However, Wave 2 and Wave 4 seems to over-correct to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level.

ST Engineering - Testing the Resistance 2nd time!

2009-11-04T02:33:00.000-08:00

ST Engineering is testing the $2.96 resistance for the 2nd time. If this stock fails to break the resistance, a double top may be formed. Immediate support at $2.82 and critical support at $2.7.

Summary of Analysts' recommendation on ST Engineering:

Cosco - Chart looks Very Bearish!

2009-11-04T02:22:00.000-08:00

Cosco breaks the Falling Wedge support and 200D MA support today. Stock price is at the lower Bollinger Band and MACD also shows Bearish Convergence.

Summary of analysts' recommendation on Cosco Corp:

Cosco's chart is VERY BEARISH and I am avoiding this stock totally. Not the right time and right price to buy for long term investment as the price may go lower!

UNG - Return to the Falling Wedge

2009-11-03T07:46:00.000-08:00

UNG failed the breakout from the channel and returned to the falling wedge. $9.00 is a critical support level and if UNG bounces back from this support, a double bottom will be formed. If this support is broken, UNG will continue to go south to its historical low until the next support of $7.072. Formation of either a double bottom pattern or breakout from a falling wedge in a down trend will reverse a trend (i.e. the stock price will move up eventually). As I am planning to invest this ETF for long term, this analysis gives me some idea where I can accumulate more shares at a lower price.

SGX - Bearish Convergence!

2009-11-03T07:17:00.000-08:00

SGX has started the correction. Standard Six Technical Indicators showed Bearish signal.

MACD showed Bearish Convergence.
RSI & Stochastic are heading south.
Parabolic SAR line on top of stock price.
Stock price is under 20D and 50D MA.
Stock price is at the lower Bollinger Band.

Immediate support at $7.65 and critical support at $7.028 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

Goldman Sachs and Apple - Get Ready to Short!

2009-11-02T06:50:00.000-08:00

I am preparing to short (buy PUT option) Goldman Sachs (GS) & Apple (AAPL) if the charts pattern are confirmed bearish.

Goldman Sachs (GS) appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders pattern. I am waiting for the right shoulder to be formed. The stock has been on the up trend since Mar 2009 and is due for a healthy correction. The 50D MA provides a very strong support line as the stock price bounced back twice in beginning of July and early Sept.

Things to watch out for GS:

Whether the right shoulder is formed?
Can the stock price breakdown the 50D MA support (probably concides with the neckline if H&S pattern is formed)?

Apple (AAPL) broke the 20D MA with a long bearish candle last Friday. The long term channel resistance which also coincides with its 50D MA trend line at about $185, is a critical support. Falling below this support could start the correction and see the price fall to $158.19 level (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). Both MACD and RSI are bearish. MACD had confirmed its dead crossover and RSI broke its support trend line.

Things to watch out for AAPL:

Whether the stock price breakdown from the long term up trend channel resistance?
After the support is broken, whether AAPL can move back to the channel (i.e. the channel support become very strong resistance to prevent AAPL to move back to the channel)?

Raffles Education - In a Down Trend Channel

2009-11-02T05:35:00.000-08:00

Raffles Education is currently on a down trend channel. The stock price is under 20D, 50D and 200D MA which is a very bearish trend. Also note that 20D MA is currently under 200D MA implies great downward momentum in the short term.

Technical Indicators like Parabolic SAR and MACD are near to show bearish convergence. RSI and Stochastic are heading down.

China HongXing - Head & Shoulders Formed!

2009-10-30T08:33:00.000-07:00

China HongXing has formed a Head & Shoulders and the stock price has broken below the neckline. However, this stock bounced back from $0.19 support line (50% Fibonacci Level).
$0.20 to $0.205 is a very critical resistance level (neckline and 61.8% Fibonacci Level) to break to have pattern failure for China HongXing to go north. Another important thing to watch is whether the trading volume returns to help to break this strong resistance.

Keppel Corp - Breakout to go NORTH or go SOUTH?

2009-10-30T08:16:00.000-07:00

Keppel Corp has formed an Ascending Triangle but it may form a Triple Tops if the stock breakdown from the Ascending Triangle. If the stock can stay within the Ascending Triangle and breakout from the resistance line of $8.42, the stock may go up to $10.30.
However, if Keppel Corp breakdown from the Ascending Triangle at around $8.20 and goes below $7.80, a Triple Tops is formed and send the stock to $7.20.

I have also compiled Analysts' recommendation in the following table:

Keppel Corp still has upside potential base on today's closing price of $8.19. The key consideration is to time the right price to buy to maximise the gain.

DRYS - Breaking Critical Supports!

2009-10-29T03:49:00.000-07:00

DRYS chart looks very bearish as DRYS broke down the Wedge channel support. The stock price is currently below 20D, 50D and 200D MA. Another scary thing is DRYS 200D MA is heading south implies that the DRYS is still on the long term down trend.

Technical Indicators also confirm that DRYS is bearish:

Stock price is at the lower Bollinger Band.
Stock price is below the Parabolic SAR.
MACD is moving into lower half of the graph.
RSI and Stochastic are heading south.

Yanlord - Testing the support

2009-10-29T03:31:00.000-07:00

Yanlord retraced back to $2.33 to test the falling wedge resistance turned support line.

If Yanlord bounces back from this support tomorrow, head & shoulders pattern failure is still valid and the target price is $2.85.
Next very important support is at $2.20 and this is also the neckline. If this support is broken, the stock price may be sent down to $1.55.

My trading plan:

Enter only when Yanlord bounces back from falling wedge resistance turn support level. Entry price between $2.30 to $2.40
Exit around the target price of $2.85.
Thing to watch out: Yanlord Q3 result announcement in 2nd week of November.

Wilmar International - Due for a Correction?

2009-10-27T05:56:00.000-07:00

Wilmar has been on a up trend since Mar 2009 without a healthy correction to climb further. The recent chart shows that Wilmar is moving sideway into consolidation phase but also at 20D MA support line. 20D MA just crossed down 50D MA recently and this is a first sign that the correction may begin. If Wilmar stock price cannot hold above the current 20D MA support of $6.35, it has the potential to retrace back to $4.99.

GoldenAgri - Trend Reversal Pattern Spotted!

2009-10-26T05:59:00.000-07:00

GoldenAgri closed at $0.45 today and formed a Bearish Abandoned Baby pattern (reserval pattern). $0.44 is 20D MA immediate support and next critical support is $0.412. I exit my trade today at $0.455 as downside probability is much higher than upside probability.

Capital Land - Head & Shoulders Pattern Failure!

2009-10-24T07:05:00.000-07:00

Capital Land had a Head & Shoulders pattern failure and have almost reached the target price of $4.40. Capital Land will probably have a correction to retest the $4.12 resistance turned support line. This stock has the potential to go up to $4.686 if this support level can be hold.

Synear - In consolidation phase now!

2009-10-24T00:45:00.000-07:00

Synear has moved into consolidation phase with reduction in volume. Nothing interesting to trade Synear now until there is a clear pattern observed.

StarHub - Trend Reversal?

2009-10-23T23:55:00.000-07:00

StarHub was on a free fall for last few trading days. Yesterday StarHub closed at $1.93 with a bullish harami candles formed. This pattern implies a pause in a down trend and is a realiable signal for a possible change in sentiment. The down trend may have stopped and the StarHub may move sideway or reverse the trend. Next session candle is important to confirm the subsequent movement. If next Monday StarHub opens with a gap up with increase in volume, a Three Inside Up pattern is formed which confirm a trend reversal.

StarHub looks very bearish and the stock price is below 20D, 50D and 200D MA. 20D MA crosses down 200D indicates strong down trend momentum in the short term. The sentiment is bad towards StarHub after losing the EPL right to SingTel and the downgrade by analysts. I am avoiding StarHub for the time being until everything is stabling down. Although the dividend yield is attrative (ex-dividend payout date in mid November), I have to be careful that I may lose more money in the stock price than the dividend payout. StarHub's share price will probably move into consolidation phase before deciding the next move. I don't want to put my money in StarHub and get my money stucked there long term.

Key indicators to watch:

Next immediate resistance at $1.94 and critical support at $1.83. Can StarHub break the resistance and hold above these critical supports?
When can 20D MA crosses up 50D and 200D MA?

Semiconductor Sector Recovery

2009-10-23T08:33:00.000-07:00

Additional Semiconductor related news for investment consideration in SMH.

http://stock-triumph.blogspot.com/2009/10/semiconductor-industry-recovering.html

http://stock-triumph.blogspot.com/2009/10/semiconductor-recovery.html

http://stock-triumph.blogspot.com/2009/10/semiconductor-recovery-part-2.html

China HongXing - Breakout to North or to South?

2009-10-23T07:41:00.000-07:00

China HongXing has formed a Head & Shoulders and at the edge of breaking out from a triangle. If China HongXing breakout from the triangle and go north with huge volume, the stock may go up to $0.27. Conversely, if the stock breaks out (the triangle support is also the neckline) and heads south, the stock may go down to $0.13.

China Fishery - a bigger picture (Elliot Wave)!

2009-10-23T03:39:00.000-07:00

China Fishery closed at $1.26 (a critical support level) with a hammer today (a trend reversal). Looking at a bigger picture, China Fishery is forming a nice Elliot Wave (in blue) and currently is probably ended with Wave 4, and the hammer may indicate the start of Wave 5 (the biggest wave).
Coincidently, a smaller Elliot Wave (in red) is observed and probably at the end of Wave C currently. This ABC retracement is approximately at 61.8% Fibonacci Level.
Base on the chart pattern and candlestick, plus the healthy correction, China Fishery will probably go on a medium term bullish upside.

Allgreen - Forming a Right Shoulder?

2009-10-23T03:25:00.000-07:00

Allgreen appears to be forming a right shoulder. If the complete Head & Shoulders is formed and Allgreen breaks the neckline of $ 1.08, it may go down to around $ 0.94 region. If the pattern fails, Allgreen will be bullish.

Yanlord - Head & Shoulders Pattern Failure!

2009-10-23T03:16:00.000-07:00

Yanlord appears to have Head & Shoulders pattern failure and breakout from the falling wedge. When there is a pattern failure, the reverse will happen. Current price is above 20D, 50D and 200D MA. My plan is to go long when Yanlord retest $ 2.41 support level and bounces up. Exit Target = $ 2.85.